Super El Niño reaches unprecedented strength — and it's still strengthening

A climate event already smashing records in the tropical Pacific is about to get even stronger. The World Meteorological Organization says this year's El Niño could become the strongest since at least 1950, with key measures already in unprecedented territory and the peak — usually reached in December — still weeks away.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, but this one is unfolding against the warmest ocean in human history, and its effects are set to ripple through weather systems, food prices and disaster risks on every continent.

An ocean storing heat far below the surface

The WMO's latest Global Seasonal Climate Update, released from Geneva this week, forecasts that sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific will reach record levels during October, November and December 2026. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo was blunt: "El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly. WMO forecasts indicate a near-100 per cent likelihood that it will persist through February 2027, potentially being one of the strongest since at least 1950."

That near-certainty is not the product of a single model. It is a consensus across thirteen national and international forecasting centres — from Washington to Tokyo to London to Pune — built on real-time exchange of ocean buoy, satellite and radiosonde data coordinated by the WMO.

The data tell a striking story. Australia's Bureau of Meteorology reports the relative Niño 3.4 index reached +1.96°C in September 2026 — the highest monthly value since 2015 — and forecasts a peak around +3.7°C in November or December. If realised, that would be more than 1°C above the existing record of +2.56°C, set in December 1902.

And the engine has more fuel. NOAA data show water around 100 metres below the surface in parts of the eastern tropical Pacific reached +12°C above average on 11 October 2026 — a vast reservoir of warm subsurface water that is likely to keep El Niño strengthening in the coming weeks. Japan's Meteorological Agency separately reported tropical Pacific temperatures up to 4.0°C above normal, a record that beat the previous mark of 3.6°C from the disastrous El Niño of December 1997.

Odds of a 'historic' event

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's October diagnostic now puts the odds of a strong-to-very-strong El Niño at greater than 83 per cent through early 2027 — and an 83 per cent chance of a "historic" event topping every El Niño since 1950. Forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show the current event running ahead of all Super El Niño events of recent decades, on track to be the strongest in over 75 years.

El Niño does not create heat — it releases it. As Saulo explained to the Global Heat Forum in Bangkok: "El Niño doesn't add new heat to the planet. It releases heat the ocean has already been storing beneath the surface — which is why a strong event so often becomes one of the hottest years measured. The ocean it's drawing from is the warmest we've ever measured it. There is simply more heat available to release."

That distinction matters. A Super El Niño is a natural cycle; the unprecedented ocean heat it is drawing on is the product of decades of greenhouse-gas warming. The combination is what makes this event historically unusual.

Hurricane Polo already bears its fingerprints

The consequences are already visible. Last month's Hurricane Polo became the longest-lasting Category 5 storm ever recorded in the Pacific, spending two-and-a-half days at maximum intensity before striking Mexico's Baja California peninsula. A new joint study by World Weather Attribution and Climate Central, published on 15 October, found that climate change and El Niño combined to turbocharge the storm — with global warming the bigger culprit, adding about 6 mph to its strength compared with roughly 5 mph from El Niño.

"El Niño and climate change both made this hurricane stronger than it would have otherwise been, but the effect of climate change is even bigger than the one of El Niño," said climate scientist Friederike Otto, who coordinates the World Weather Attribution team.

The study also noted that this year has set records for the strength and longevity of Pacific storms — precisely what meteorologists expect from a Super El Niño drawing on record ocean heat.

What the world should expect

A Super El Niño does not affect everywhere equally, but its global fingerprint is well understood. The WMO warns of above-average temperatures for much of the globe and shifted rainfall patterns — increasing the risk of drought in some regions and flooding in others.

The food system is particularly exposed. El Niño events have historically disrupted harvests across South-East Asia, parts of Africa and South America, and scientists are already warning farmers to prepare. The last comparable Super El Niño, in 2015–16, contributed to droughts and food crises in more than a dozen countries.

Winter forecasters are watching closely. Analysis of new October data suggests a colder, snowier winter ahead for parts of the United States and Canada under the strengthening El Niño signal, while Europe trends toward milder conditions — though the exact regional impacts remain uncertain and depend on how the peak plays out.

For readers tracking how climate extremes affect household budgets, the commodity markets — where food prices move — can be followed via the site's commodities and gold-rate figures, since drought-driven crop shortfalls tend to feed into global prices.

Original reporting on the WMO forecast appeared in PreventionWeb.

Byline: NewsFlow Editorial Team

FAQs

What is El Niño?

El Niño is a natural climate pattern that begins with unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific around the equator. It disrupts global atmospheric circulation, shifting rainfall patterns and raising temperatures worldwide. It typically peaks in December and fades over the following year; its counterpart, La Niña, brings cooler Pacific waters and broadly opposite effects.

Why is this El Niño being called historic?

Multiple records are falling: relative Niño 3.4 hit +1.96°C in September (highest since 2015), subsurface heat reached +12°C above average, and Japan's Meteorological Agency recorded tropical Pacific temperatures 4.0°C above normal — a record. NOAA gives an 83 per cent chance this becomes the strongest El Niño since 1950, and ECMWF comparisons show it ahead of every Super El Niño of recent decades. The peak is forecast around December, so it may yet intensify further.

How long will it last?

The WMO forecasts a near-100 per cent chance that El Niño persists through February 2027, with Australia's Bureau of Meteorology suggesting it could linger into the Southern Hemisphere autumn of 2027. The event typically peaks in December and then gradually weakens, but this year's exceptional strength could prolong its weather impacts well into next year.

What impacts should the world expect?

Expect above-average global temperatures and disrupted rainfall: droughts in some regions, floods in others. Hurricane Polo — the longest-lived Category 5 Pacific storm ever — has already been linked to this El Niño plus global warming. Food production is a key risk, with harvests in South-East Asia, Africa and South America historically vulnerable. Winter forecasts point to a colder, snowier North American winter and milder European conditions, though regional detail remains uncertain.

Is climate change making El Niño worse?

El Niño itself is natural, but it is now drawing on the warmest ocean in measured history — and that extra stored heat, the product of greenhouse-gas warming, is what pushes records. The Hurricane Polo study found climate change added about 6 mph to the storm's strength versus about 5 mph from El Niño. Scientists say distinguishing the natural cycle from the human-warmed baseline is increasingly difficult — and that the two amplify each other.