Coral reef loss could lead to $3 billion decline in Hawaiʻi recreation by 2100

Coral reef loss in Hawaiʻi may result in a staggering $3 billion decrease in reef-related recreational activities by the year 2100, according to a study published by researchers from the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa on July 2, 2026. The research highlights how climate change is driving this decline, significantly impacting lower-income and disadvantaged communities.

Projected Economic Losses Due to Coral Reef Decline

The study published in Ecological Economics indicates that the projected economic losses will not be uniformly distributed. The researchers estimate that local residents could face losses ranging from $1.8 billion to $3 billion due to the degradation of coral reefs essential for recreational activities. These activities include swimming, snorkeling, and diving, which are vital to the cultural and economic fabric of Hawaiʻi.

Using advanced biophysical simulations, the research team modeled how coral cover might change across nearshore reef systems through 2100. They considered three different climate scenarios: low, mid-range, and high global emissions. The findings suggest that under a high-emissions scenario, nearshore reefs could experience near-total collapse by 2100, while some areas may show signs of recovery under low-emissions scenarios.

Disproportionate Impacts on Vulnerable Communities

One of the significant findings of this study is the disproportionate effects on disadvantaged communities. The researchers utilized the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's environmental justice tool, EJScreen, which revealed that these communities face higher per-person welfare losses compared to wealthier populations. This insight challenges traditional economic models that often underestimate the impact of environmental degradation on lower-income groups.

“This study puts numbers to what our communities have long understood—that losing our reefs means losing the recreational opportunities, cultural practices, and quality of life that define what it means to live in Hawaiʻi,” stated Brian Neilson, administrator of the Hawaiʻi Division of Aquatic Resources.

Call for Local Action to Protect Coral Reefs

In light of these findings, the research underscores the urgency for local action to safeguard Hawaiʻi's coral reefs. The study aligns with initiatives like Hawaiʻi's Holomua Marine Initiative, which collaborates with communities and Indigenous knowledge holders to create targeted reef management strategies. Kirsten L.L. Oleson, a senior author of the study, emphasized the importance of taking immediate action to mitigate potential losses.

“The magnitude of those potential losses should be a wake-up call to take action now to protect our nearshore environment,” she noted. Effective measures such as reducing land-based pollution and over-harvesting can significantly contribute to preserving these vital ecosystems.