In June 2026, the anticipated World Cup jobs boom in the US hospitality sector did not materialize, with employment in restaurants, bars, and hotels falling by 61,000 jobs. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), this decline comes as a surprise, given that analysts had predicted an increase in leisure and hospitality jobs due to the tournament being hosted by the US, Canada, and Mexico.
Unexpected Job Losses in the Hospitality Sector
The hospitality industry was expected to benefit significantly from the World Cup, with analysts forecasting a boost of around 40,000 jobs in June. However, the BLS reported an overall increase in US employment of only 57,000 for the month, which was lower than expectations. The unemployment rate dipped slightly to 4.2%.
Despite earlier signs of a jobs boom in May, where there was a reported increase of 44,000 jobs, the June figures indicate a troubling reversal. James Knightley, chief US economist at ING, described the leisure and hospitality sector as a "real area of weakness". He noted, "the decline was a major surprise given the World Cup is on and bars and venues are busy."
Revisions to Previous Employment Figures
In addition to the unexpected job losses in June, Thursday's jobs report included significant downward revisions to previous months' employment figures. The number of jobs created in April and May was revised downward by 74,000, indicating that the earlier increases may not represent a new trend.
Knightley emphasized that the lower-than-expected overall increase in jobs, combined with the downward revisions, suggests that the job growth experienced in prior months was not sustainable. This situation may influence monetary policy, making an interest rate hike less likely in the near term.
Implications for the US Economy
According to Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at Wealth Club, the slowdown in job growth opens the door to a "Goldilocks scenario" for the US economy. This scenario implies that the economy could maintain a balance, avoiding extremes of being too hot or too cold. Streeter noted, "Expectations of multiple rate hikes are fading away, with only one hike now fully priced in, and not until next year."
- June job decline: 61,000 in hospitality
- Overall employment increase: 57,000
- Unemployment rate: 4.2%
- May job increase: 44,000
- Revisions: 74,000 fewer jobs created in April and May
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