SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 debut triggers passive buying despite 5.4% share drop

SpaceX made its debut in the Nasdaq-100 index on July 7, 2026, following a successful stock market launch on June 12. This swift inclusion is expected to generate billions in passive buying as brokerages initiate coverage on the $2 trillion rocket and satellite company.

Impact of SpaceX's Nasdaq-100 Inclusion

SpaceX's entry into the tech-heavy index signifies a new demand source for its stock. Index funds and exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to the Nasdaq-100 will now need to acquire shares to align with the updated benchmark. However, despite this potential demand, shares of SpaceX fell by 5.4%, reflecting a wider downturn in high-momentum tech stocks.

Concerns regarding the sustainability of the AI boom have contributed to this decline. Mark Hackett, chief market strategist for Nationwide, noted, “There’s nervousness about expectations being too high. I expect that to continue until we get some earnings out.” The stock currently holds a 1.34 percent weight in the Nasdaq-100, a fraction compared to giants like Nvidia and Apple.

Brokerage Ratings and Future Projections

Typically, a company must demonstrate profitability over four quarters to be included in the S&P 500 and three months for the Nasdaq-100. SpaceX sought a waiver for mega cap companies, which Nasdaq granted in May, allowing them to enter the index after just 15 trading days. In contrast, S&P Dow Jones Indices maintained its traditional requirements.

More than a dozen brokerages, including major underwriters Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JP Morgan, have initiated coverage of SpaceX with positive ratings. Analysts from Goldman Sachs commented, “We see the company as well-positioned to scale its differentiated advantages across space, connectivity, and AI,” emphasizing the potential for each market to evolve into multi-trillion-dollar opportunities within five years.

• Projected annual SpaceX Starship launches by 2031:
• JP Morgan: 5,000
• Wells Fargo: 4,600
• Bernstein: 3,500
• UBS: over 1,500

Challenges and Competitors

Despite the optimistic outlook, not all analysts share the same enthusiasm. Firms like MoffettNathanson and KeyBanc have issued neutral ratings, while CFRA stands out with a sell rating and a low price target of $115. Investors are particularly focused on SpaceX's potential to emerge as a hyperscale AI infrastructure provider, competing with leading models such as OpenAI's GPT and Anthropic's Claude.

Furthermore, analysts see significant growth opportunities for Starlink in satellite communications, contingent upon the successful development of the next-generation Starship rocket. Deutsche Bank analysts stated, “SpaceX has a clear advantage in deploying AI infrastructure on the ground and eventually in orbit, positioning it as the leading ‘haloscaler’, ultimately able to deliver compute at the lowest cost.”

With a market capitalization nearing $2 trillion, SpaceX ranks as the sixth-largest US company, while CEO Elon Musk has achieved the status of the world’s first trillionaire. Recently, FTSE Russell added SpaceX to its US indexes, allowing investors to engage with the largest IPO in US history.

However, S&P Global has yet to adopt a similar fast-track process for including SpaceX in the S&P 500, indicating that it may take at least a year before SpaceX joins this prestigious index.