Rising human-elephant conflict in Southern Africa predicted through 2085

A new study published in PNAS Nexus predicts an increase in human-elephant conflict in Southern Africa, driven by factors such as human population growth and climate change. Conducted by Evan Patrick and colleagues, the research highlights the challenges faced by both farmers and elephants as their habitats overlap.

According to the study, which analyzed data from crop-raiding events in Namibia from 2004 to 2020, approximately 290,000 African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana) are involved in conflicts that can devastate local agriculture.

Drivers of Human-Elephant Conflict

The study identifies several key factors contributing to the rising incidents of crop raiding:

• Human Population Growth: Increasing populations lead to more land being converted for agricultural use.
• Cropland Expansion: As farmers expand their fields, the likelihood of elephants raiding crops increases.
• Climate-Driven Aridity: Changes in climate reduce the availability of wild food sources for elephants, pushing them into human territories.

The researchers utilized causal-inference statistical methods and machine-learning models to assess the trends and predictors of this conflict across a broader region, including parts of Botswana, Angola, and Zambia.

Mapping the Future of Conflict

The analysis also involved mapping the probability of human-elephant conflict throughout the study area. Important variables included:

• Tree cover
• Distance to roads
• Distance to fences
• Distance to rivers
• Human population density
• Vegetation productivity

The models suggest that the risk of crop raiding could double by the end of the century under various climate change scenarios, affecting both wet and dry seasons.

Implications for Land Use Planning

As human land use continues to expand, the pressure on elephant populations will intensify. The authors emphasize the need for proactive land use planning and effective mitigation strategies to ensure long-term coexistence between humans and elephants.

“The model's predictions can inform proactive land use planning and mitigation measures that will be essential for long-term coexistence between humans and elephants,” the authors state.