Mysterious drone flights over major European airports and NATO military bases are suspected to be part of a Kremlin campaign, according to the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). The analysis, released on February 15, 2026, indicates that Russian-linked commercial ships may have facilitated these operations, raising concerns about European air defense vulnerabilities.
Drone Incursions and Military Bases
Between August 2024 and February 2026, the IISS documented 144 drone sightings across Europe, with approximately 48% occurring over military bases. These incidents affected a dozen NATO member countries and Ireland, highlighting a trend that appears to probe allied defenses. The report suggests that the flights were likely not conducted by hobbyists but were part of a more coordinated effort.
Notably, 26% of the sightings were over critical infrastructure, including ports and energy facilities, while 18% occurred over civilian airports. Most incidents were reported during nighttime or early morning hours, with drones often described as resembling military-style models.
Potential Drone Models Used in Operations
The IISS identified several drone models that could be used for operations launched from commercial vessels. One potential candidate is the Merlin-VR, a fixed-wing drone capable of being launched from a catapult system. It has the range and night operation capabilities necessary for these incursions.
