Africa faces severe impacts from El Nino in 2024, affecting millions at risk

In 2024, Africa braces for the return of the El Nino weather pattern, which the World Meteorological Organization warns could lead to extreme weather events across the continent. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the World Food Programme (WFP) have called for over $200 million in funding to assist 8.8 million people in 22 high-risk countries.

Impacts of El Nino Across Africa

El Nino, a natural phenomenon characterized by the warming of sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically occurs every two to seven years and lasts for nine to twelve months. Its effects vary significantly across different regions of Africa. In southern Africa, regions like Zimbabwe are expected to experience hotter and drier conditions, increasing the risk of drought and food insecurity.

In contrast, eastern Africa may face varied impacts depending on the season. As Kgaugelo Mkumbeni, a research officer at the Institute for Security Studies, stated, "For Africa, it's not one climate story. It's actually going to be a much more varied impact." This complexity highlights the need for tailored responses to the challenges posed by El Nino.

Concerns Over Climate Preparedness

Experts emphasize the urgency of addressing the looming crisis. According to Bhargabi Bharadwaj from Chatham House, "El Nino reshapes rainfall and temperature patterns around the world, though its impacts can vary depending on the region and which season it hits." With climate change exacerbating conditions, the potential for a strong El Nino this year raises alarms.

Governments and aid agencies face significant challenges in responding effectively. The situation is compounded by existing fragilities, including conflicts, high energy costs, and disruptions in international aid, as noted by Bharadwaj. "The concern isn't just El Nino; it's that it's occurring at a time when the global system is already quite fragile," she added.

Climate-Linked Displacement and Migration

The repercussions of El Nino extend beyond immediate weather impacts. Aimee-Noel Mbiyozo, a senior researcher at the Institute for Security Studies, highlighted that climate-related events such as cyclones and flooding are significant drivers of displacement in Africa. "Drought has, as well, but drought tends to do it a little bit more slowly," she explained.

As drought and desertification push people toward urban areas, cities must contend with the challenges of climate-linked migration. Many cities struggle with inadequate housing and public services, further complicating the response to this growing crisis.

• 8.8 million people at risk in 22 countries
• Over $200 million needed for aid
• Countries most affected include Zimbabwe, Kenya, and Somalia